Yesterday, someone asked for my impression of the coalition party called the African Democratic Congress (ADC). My response was simple: have you heard the idiom a fart in the wind? That is how I see the party that entered Nigeria’s political stage with thunderous noise only weeks ago, but has since fizzled out like a boastful eunuch’s potency.
Beyond finely worded press releases, what exactly has ADC done to unsettle those in power or inspire hope in ordinary Nigerians yearning for change? The party’s National Secretary, Rauf Aregbesola, is supposed to be the engine room of the organisation. Yet, his focus seems more fixed on regional politics in Western Nigeria than on building a strong national force. Last month, ADC promised to inaugurate a 50-man policy committee to chart an agenda for Nigeria. Have you heard anything about that since? Thunder, it appears, was mistaken for mere gas.
A party serious about seizing power behaves like a man wooing a woman: consistent, practical, and relentlessly engaged. Politics, like chess, is about anticipating the opponent’s threats while creating openings to strike. Great players don’t waste time on empty moves. Judging by its steps so far, ADC hardly looks like a viable alternative to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Perhaps that explains why APC’s South-West chapter dismissed it as nothing more than “a mere distraction” last week.
When a ruling party grows tired of governing, you see it pamper the opposition. Former President Goodluck Jonathan made that mistake between 2013 and 2014, allowing the Buhari–Tinubu alliance to grow unchecked until it consumed him. Today, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is no Jonathan. His allies boast that he is not merely a vote-seeker but a ruthless vote maximizer. To imagine such a man can be toppled with press releases and grandstanding is, frankly, delusional.
The story is often told of young drummers who visited Tinubu in 2016 during the Ileya festival. As they played and sang in front of his Bourdillon residence, the politician emerged, danced with energy, and embraced their chant:
“Novices they are, they know nothing;
The elephant emerges from afar,
And they go for sticks
But the elephant is no animal you beat with canes.”
That symbolic song, praising the Lion of Bourdillon, was a prophecy of sorts. Seven years later, Tinubu roared his way into Aso Rock, now commanding the weapons of war, peace, and politics. Any challenger armed with mere sticks and noise should know better.
Christine Goldberg once wrote that “people tell stories to explore their place in the world.” Nigeria’s politics has its folktales too. One tells of a forest ruled by Lion, feared by all. The animals, urged by Tortoise to unite, failed to plan together. Monkey boasted of his speed, Elephant of his strength, Antelope of his fatalism, while the Rat complained of neglect. Instead of unity, they scattered just as Nigeria’s opposition often does. And so, Lion continued his reign unchallenged.
If ADC wants to be more than a “fart in the wind,” it must learn from that folktale. A divided opposition remains nothing more than prey before a hungry king.
