Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 14.45 percent in November, falling below the federal government’s budget benchmark for the first time in six years and offering some relief to households grappling with rising living costs.
The latest figure aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s inflation target of 15 percent by the end of 2025, as well as the projection contained in the 2025 budget. The budget, tagged the “Budget of Restoration,” set out to stabilise the economy by lowering inflation from levels above 34 percent to around 15–16 percent, while also pursuing improved GDP growth and exchange rate stability around N1,500 to the dollar.
President Tinubu first announced the 15 percent inflation target during the presentation of the 2025 Appropriation Bill to the National Assembly in December 2024 and reaffirmed the goal in his New Year address for 2025.
Analysts say the sustained moderation in inflation reflects both structural and short-term factors. Ayo Teriba, chief executive officer of Economic Associates, noted that the slowdown is largely a lag effect rather than a direct outcome of the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Nigeria rebased its CPI in early 2025, shifting the base year to 2024 and updating consumption weights. This statistical adjustment led to a sharp drop in headline inflation from about 34.8 percent in December 2024 to 24.48 percent in January 2025. Since then, inflation has trended downward almost consistently, with the exception of February.
Further supporting the easing trend, analysts at Meristem said inflationary pressures continued to soften due to improved harvest supply conditions and a relatively stable foreign exchange market. They pointed to widespread price declines across key food staples such as maize, sorghum, paddy rice and soybeans.
Currency stability also played a role. The naira appreciated by 1.45 percent month-on-month in November, averaging N1,443.85 to the dollar compared with N1,465.04 in October.
As a result, food inflation declined to 11.08 percent in November from 13.12 percent in October, marking the fifth consecutive monthly drop. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also eased to 18.04 percent from 18.69 percent in the previous month.
Looking ahead, Teriba projected that inflation could fall into single digits by January 2026, as seasonal effects linked to increased spending during the festive period begin to fade, further easing price pressures that have remained in double-digit territory for more than five years.
